How Vlad Jr. and the Blue Jays bet on each other — and won

SIX MONTHS AGO, just seven games into the 2025 season, the Toronto Blue Jays arrived in Queens with uncertainty hovering over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s future. New York Mets fans, hopeful that their team could eventually land the impending free agent and partner him with Juan Soto, welcomed the first baseman with notably loud cheers at Citi Field to open the weekend series. Guerrero and the Blue Jays had failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension before an arbitrary mid-February deadline, and the drama would not die.

Then, suddenly, it did, hours after the Mets completed a weekend sweep. The deal was historic: 14 years, $500 million without deferrals, the third-largest contract in Major League Baseball history. The Canadian-born Guerrero, signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old with a famous name, would be a Blue Jay for life. Guerrero bet on himself by turning down smaller offers and bet on the Blue Jays by agreeing not to test free agency. And the Blue Jays bet on the homegrown star at a massive price, having whiffed on other marquee talents in recent years. The impact was instant.

«We didn’t start playing our best baseball until May,» Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer said. «But if that didn’t get settled, it would be this cloud hanging over our season the whole time. The fact that that was resolved just kind of settled everything down. The outside attention is resolved. It’s no longer, ‘What’s going to happen here?’ It kind of took the elephant out of the room.»

Guerrero, 26, responded with his fifth All-Star season, batting .292 with 23 home runs and an .848 OPS in 156 games. His play, coupled with rebound seasons from George Springer and Bo Bichette and a deep roster of contributors, fueled the Blue Jays’ ascension from 74 wins and last place in 2024 to 94 wins, an American League East title and, now, Game 3 of the American League Championship Series.

The Blue Jays can point to a few possible turning points on their way to a fourth playoff appearance in six years. There was a three-game sweep in Seattle in early May. There was Bichette’s pinch-hit, go-ahead home run in the ninth inning in Texas later that month. But Guerrero’s agreement a week into the season helped pave the way to where the Blue Jays find themselves Wednesday: four wins shy of their first World Series appearance in 32 years.

Down 2-0 after the Mariners dominated the first two games in Toronto, it’s no easy feat. But the goal Guerrero has set for himself hasn’t changed.

«For me my goal always is to win a World Series, to bring the World Series here,» Guerrero said earlier this postseason. «My father, he never had the chance to win a World Series. That’s one of my goals, always been one of my goals, to do that for me, for him.»

THE JOURNEY TO this breakout postseason for Guerrero and the Blue Jays began more than a decade ago. In January 2015, months before Guerrero was eligible to sign as an international free agent, Edwin Encarnación received a call from Alex Anthopoulos, then Toronto’s general manager: The Blue Jays wanted to see a 15-year-old Guerrero, their top target that year, work out again in the Dominican Republic — and they needed to find a ballpark.

Encarnación, coming off an All-Star season for Toronto in 2014, reached out to his contacts and a workout was arranged to have Guerrero face older free agents from Cuba. With Encarnación and Blue Jays officials, including Anthopoulos and international scouting director Ismael Cruz looking on, Guerrero convinced the decision-makers.

«It was something special,» Encarnación said in Spanish on the field at Rogers Centre on Monday before Game 2 of the ALCS. «Vladdy was better than the Cubans. This kid, at 15 years old, showed off against them. He was special.»

That July, the Blue Jays used their entire international bonus pool to sign Guerrero for $3.9 million. Worried about the hoopla that came with being the son of a future Hall of Famer, Anthopoulos asked the team’s media department to hold a low-key event when Guerrero, born in Montreal during his father’s time starring for the Expos, was brought to Toronto for the first time. No news conference at the podium. Just batting practice on the field.

«I was concerned with the last name, the hype and the expectations were going to be out of this world,» said Anthopoulos, now general manager of the Atlanta Braves. «And they were anyway, as much as we tried to play it down.»

Guerrero was not immune to the pressure upon arriving for his major league debut in 2019 as the top prospect across baseball at just 20 years old. The years that followed were not a linear progression. After an AL MVP runner-up season in which he clubbed 48 home runs with a 1.002 OPS in 2021, his first year as a full-time first baseman, Guerrero hit 58 home runs with an .804 OPS over the next two years. Then came another breakout last season: a .323/.396/.544 slash line with 30 home runs in 159 games to raise his value heading into his platform year.

«He’s not easily distracted,» Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said. «He’s still very human, and I think the hardest part, from my perspective and my view, that Vladdy’s had to deal with is the expectation. Not the distractions off the field or the attention. And he embraced the expectations.»

This year, the pressure was on Guerrero to finally perform to those expectations in the postseason. He entered the AL Division Series against the New York Yankees 3-for-22 with two walks, five strikeouts and no home runs in six career playoff games — all losses — spread over three separate wild-card series.

Guerrero quickly discarded that history in Game 1, swatting a solo home run in his first plate appearance of the postseason. In Game 2, he cracked a grand slam that will long be replayed on Rogers Centre highlight reels. He finished the series 9-for-17 with three home runs and nine RBIs as the Blue Jays eliminated New York in four games.

«I think he’s improved a lot in all aspects,» Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk said. «The experience, how he’s matured as a person. He’s no longer the 20-year-old Vladimir when he debuted. Now he’s Vladimir.»

VLADIMIR VASQUEZ WATCHED the Blue Jays close out the Yankees last Wednesday from his restaurant 5 miles north of Rogers Centre. Born in the Dominican Republic, Vasquez moved to Toronto when he was 11 years old in 1990 and quickly became a fan of the early-’90s Blue Jays championship teams. He opened Cabacoa, a Dominican restaurant, a year-and-a-half ago — a sign of the city’s growing Dominican community.

«I’ve been following Vladimir Guerrero Jr. since he was in the minors,» Vasquez said. «It’s funny because his dad was the only older Dominican Vladimir I knew growing up. But it’s important for the community, for the Dominican community, to have somebody who’s that good who’s going to be here long term.»

It’s part of the responsibility Guerrero shoulders beyond playing first base and batting third. He’s the only Canadian citizen on Canada’s only MLB team. His No. 27 jersey is the one Blue Jays fans wear from British Columbia to Newfoundland. He’s the player the Blue Jays committed to as their cornerstone through his age-40 season in 2039 — 20 years after his debut — with hopes he’ll end up with his own Hall of Fame career.

«I look at Vladdy long term because I’ve gotten to play with the greats,» said Scherzer, an 18-year veteran and three-time Cy Young Award winner. «I’ve gotten to play with so many great, different players over my career. For me, he kind of fits this Prince Fielder-Miguel Cabrera mold. He’s kind of a hybrid between those two.»

In the short term, the agreement was an exhale. Perhaps, as Atkins said he’d like to think, the Blue Jays would’ve found their footing without Guerrero signing the extension. The pieces were in place two years removed from an 89-win season. But that variable, which had lingered from the day Guerrero reported for spring training, was removed.

Six months later, the Blue Jays, behind their franchise pillar, are breaking through.

«I think it kind of showed our fan base and the league kind of what we’re trying to do here short and long term,» Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. «And it just kind of clears a little bit of a cloud around a really good player and allows the team to say, ‘OK, this is our guy, this is what we’re going to do.’ I think it kind of freed everyone up.»