Matchup rankings: Upgrade Tetairoa McMillan, downgrade Dak Prescott

Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.

Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?

Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.

«Adj. FPA,» or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Also remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

Matchups highlight: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (versus New York Giants). He completed a personal-worst 37.8% of his pass attempts on Monday night, but he also faced one of his toughest matchups all year, as the opposing Philadelphia Eagles are sixth toughest against the position over the past five weeks (minus-4.4 Adjusted FPA), and fourth toughest for the season (minus-2.2). Against the Giants, Goff should rebound closer to the form that saw him average 18.3 fantasy points while totaling 11 touchdowns compared to one interception over his previous five games. Over their past five games, the Giants haven’t intercepted a pass, and they’ve afforded quarterbacks the most fantasy points per game (25.9).

Others to like: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (at Cincinnati Bengals); Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals (versus Jacksonville Jaguars).

Matchup to avoid: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (versus Eagles). He’s going from facing the lowly Las Vegas Raiders, against whom he completed 75.8% of his pass attempts for four touchdowns, to drawing the aforementioned Eagles matchup. Prescott is another «prove-it» matchup, akin to Daniel Jones‘ against the Falcons in Week 10 in which Jones scored a middling 15.5 fantasy points, as it’s a critical game as far as rallying his Cowboys back into the playoff, and perhaps even NFC East, picture. The problem, however, is that the Eagles’ defense looks outstanding since the deadline acquisition of Jaelan Phillips, limiting Jordan Love and Goff to a combined 19.94 fantasy points the past two weeks.

Running backs

Matchups highlight: TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots (at Bengals). He has thrived since his installation as the Patriots’ starting running back entering Week 9, scoring a sixth-best-among-all-players 73.0 fantasy points. To think, Henderson only got the nod then due to Rhamondre Stevenson‘s toe injury. Even if Stevenson returns to action this week, in all likelihood as a goal-line/change-of-pace back, Henderson is an effective must-start facing this matchup. The Bengals have surrendered 34.1 fantasy points per game to running backs, not only the league’s most in 2025, but the second-highest single season rate this century (2008 Denver Broncos, 34.9).

Others to like: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (versus Falcons); Woody Marks, Houston Texans (versus Buffalo Bills, «Thursday Night Football»).

Matchup to avoid: Chase Brown, Bengals (versus Patriots). Across the field, Brown is in a tougher spot this week, due both to what Ja’Marr Chase‘s suspension does to diminish the Bengals’ offensive potency, as well as the matchup itself. While Brown’s 22 targets in the Bengals’ past two games, tied for the positional lead over that three-week span, lessens worry of negative game script, the Patriots have been mighty good against the run all year. For the season, they’re first against running backs specifically in rushing yards allowed per game (58.6) and yards per rushing attempt (0.40), and second in fantasy points allowed per game (16.7) and adjusted FPTA (minus-5.0).

Wide receivers

Matchups highlight: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (at San Francisco 49ers). He’s fresh off a career-best, 33.0 fantasy point performance against the Atlanta Falcons, and over the past five weeks, he has a 26.8% target rate and seven red zone targets. That’s the kind of usage that can lead to big games when quarterback Bryce Young is performing at his best, and/or when the matchup is right, both of which could be the case this week. The mounting number of injuries has severely depleted the 49ers’ pass defense, to the point that they’re the best wide receiver matchup over the past five weeks (+9.5 adjusted FPA). Four different wide receivers have scored 15-plus fantasy points against the 49ers in the past two weeks alone, and nine have scored in double digits over the past four weeks.

Others to like: Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (versus Pittsburgh Steelers); DK Metcalf, Steelers (at Bears).

Matchup to avoid: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (at Kansas City Chiefs). His two-target, 3.9 fantasy-point Week 10, coupled with Alec Pierce‘s big game (18.4 points, 7 targets), in the Colts’ last game before the bye casts many doubts upon his fantasy utility facing this matchup. Daniel Jones has a clear preference for Tyler Warren in the red zone, and Pierce is the better option on deep throws. That leaves Pittman fighting for volume largely lined up across from Chiefs cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, two of the better players in coverage this season (minus-3.7 and minus-7.5 target EPA, per NFL Next Gen Stats). The Chiefs haven’t afforded a 20-point game to a wide receiver since Week 1, and they’ve surrendered only eight double-digit scores to the position in their past nine games.

Tight ends

Matchups highlight: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Los Angeles Rams). He has again emerged as a fantasy-relevant tight end due to the injuries to other Buccaneers receivers, posting a 21.0% target share in the past seven weeks which ranks sixth best at the position, and 11.0 fantasy points per game in that same time span. Meanwhile, if there’s a weak spot in the Rams’ defense, it’s keeping opposing tight ends in check. Five of their past seven games have seen one score in excess of 10 fantasy points, including Jake Tonges (17.1, Week 5), Juwan Johnson (12.1, Week 9) and AJ Barner (17.1, Week 11).

Matchup to avoid: Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns (at Raiders). He scored just 4.6 fantasy points, his worst output since Week 4, on five targets in Week 11, and he’ll likely again be working with untested rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Fannin is also facing a Raiders defense that is strong in one regard, containing opposing tight ends. For the season, the Raiders have held the position to the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (9.6), fifth-fewest adjusted FPA (minus-3.0) and ninth-fewest points per target (1.71).