Why Christian McCaffrey trade helped 49ers, not Panthers

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The Carolina Panthers‘ locker room was in shock on Oct. 20, 2022, when star running back Christian McCaffrey was traded to the San Francisco 49ers.

Even today, some wonder why the organization moved its best player, but the answer was simple: Even with McCaffrey, the 2017 No. 8 draft pick, Carolina was 1-5, had just fired coach Matt Rhule and hadn’t been to the playoffs or had a winning season since 2017.

The organization was looking for a path to turn things around.

That meant acquiring draft picks to rebuild and potentially select a franchise quarterback, according to multiple league sources close to the situation, because the Panthers had only four picks in the 2023 draft.

McCaffrey, despite being limited to 10 games the previous two seasons, was their most valuable asset outside of edge rusher Brian Burns, who some in the organization considered too valuable to move because his position is hard to replace. (The Panthers turned down two first-round picks from the Rams in October 2023, but a year later, they sent Burns to the Giants in a deal headlined by a second-rounder.)

«It was never like an epiphany, like, ‘What a great idea! Let’s trade Christian McCaffrey,»’ said a league source familiar with the trade discussions. «But to get a quarterback you have to sacrifice.»

The suitors were narrowed down to the 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills. Then-Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer wanted a first-round pick, but those teams were unwilling or unable to offer that.

The 49ers, who did not have a 2023 first-round pick, ultimately made the best offer: second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2023, and a fifth-rounder in 2024. Owner David Tepper signed off on it.

McCaffrey went on to lead the NFL in rushing in 2023 and win Offensive Player of the Year, and he helped San Francisco reach Super Bowl LVIII. This season, the 29-year-old leads the NFL in scrimmage yards.

The Panthers thought they landed their franchise quarterback in the 2023 draft when they agreed to a trade with the Chicago Bears — which included the Niners’ second-round pick acquired in the McCaffrey trade — so they could move up to No. 1 and select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young.

As the Panthers (6-5) prepare to face McCaffrey and the 49ers (7-4) on Monday night at Levi Stadium (8:20 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN) for the first time since the trade, the question lingers: How did the trade pan out for the Panthers?

«It was never, ‘Oh, the team has to get rid of McCaffrey,»’ said another league source involved in the discussions at the time. «It was more prompted by teams were calling and the prospects of having multiple picks for him was what was most enticing. The cupboard was bare.

«I don’t think anybody thought [Carolina] won this deal.»

INITIALLY, THE TRADE worked out well for Carolina in 2022. Interim coach Steve Wilks had the team in playoff contention, going 6-6 the rest of the way and finishing with a 7-10 record, one game behind the Bucs in the NFC South and two behind the wild-card winners.

But instead of hiring the defensive-minded Wilks as the permanent coach after the season, Tepper hired offensive-minded Frank Reich to help develop the young quarterback he was about to draft. Reich was fired after a 1-10 start.

The search for McCaffrey’s backfield replacement began well. The Panthers had averaged 90.3 rushing yards per game before trading McCaffrey, but that jumped to 159.5 in the four games following the trade, thanks to journeyman back D’Onta Foreman, who had 389 yards rushing and four touchdowns during that stretch.

Rather than re-sign Foreman, the Panthers signed free agent Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal, while Foreman signed for one year with the Bears. Eventually, Chuba Hubbard, who was McCaffrey’s backup prior to the trade, emerged as the go-to back over Sanders in 2023. He had 902 yards rushing that season and 1,195 yards in ’24 to earn a four-year, $33.2 million extension in November 2024.

Even that didn’t turn out as the organization expected. Hubbard was supplanted as the lead back by Rico Dowdle, who signed a one-year, $2.75 million free agent deal in March and has 1,030 scrimmage yards this season.

Time will tell whether he is their long-term solution, but McCaffrey, who missed 13 games in 2024 because of injuries, is back on his game with a league-best 1,439 scrimmage yards.

Wilks, who is now the defensive coordinator for the New York Jets, made it clear in September what he thought of the trade: «I don’t think an interim coach has much say over personnel. If that were the case, I wouldn’t have gotten rid of our best player, Christian McCaffrey.»

Wilks was right; he did not have a say in the trade, according to multiple sources with the team at the time. The deal came together 10 days after Rhule was fired on Oct. 10 and was consummated 11 days before the NFL trade deadline.

«Steve’s task was to win games,» a league source familiar with the decision-making process said. «You don’t get better immediately by trading your best player. It was a two- or three-year decision.»

They could have received at least one first-round pick had they traded Burns or defensive tackle Derrick Brown; some believed trading Burns would have made the most significant impact for a total rebuild.

«[They] would have controlled the draft and free agency, and [they] could have gotten the quarterback without having to give up anything more,» a league source familiar with the trade details at the time said.

Instead, McCaffrey was traded two years after Carolina made him the highest-paid running back in the NFL with a four-year, $64 million extension designed to keep him with the team through 2025.

«We had fired Matt Rhule and then traded CMac, so as you can probably imagine, not the best mood after that,» tight end Tommy Tremble recalled of how teammates felt. «It was very tough to feel good about a lot of things that were happening.»

Said Hubbard, «Anytime your brother gets traded, it’s not fun. Anytime one of your teammates of that magnitude gets traded, it’s tough.»

YOUNG (12-26) REMAINS a work in progress despite showing promise at the end of last season and during a four-game win streak as the starter earlier this season.

He currently ranks 23rd in Total QBR (45.4), 29th in passing yards per game (196.2), 27th in yards per pass attempt (6.2) and is tied for 17th in passing TDs (14). He has also had four games with multiple turnovers this season.

But then there are moments like Sunday’s 30-27 overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons, in which Young threw for a franchise-record 448 yards and three touchdowns, revealing the potential the Panthers saw in him as the No. 1 pick.

In hindsight, the Panthers might have done better in their quarterback search had they kept McCaffrey and taken their chances with other quarterbacks in the 2023 and ’24 drafts.

The Panthers finished Young’s rookie season in 2023 with the worst record (2-15), but to acquire Young, they had sent their 2024 first-round pick to the Bears, who used it to select Caleb Williams No. 1.

Even if Carolina didn’t have the worst record that season, they likely could have landed a quality quarterback in a deep class that included Williams, Jayden Daniels (No. 2), Drake Maye (No. 3), Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8), J.J. McCarthy (No. 10) and Bo Nix (No. 12). Daniels was the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Williams, Maye and Nix have their teams battling to make the playoffs this season.

The Panthers also could have shown more patience and built around veterans Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Nos. 1 and 3 picks of the 2018 draft by the Cleveland Browns and Jets, respectively.

Mayfield, who was 1-5 in 2022 as the starting QB with Carolina, has gone 26-21 since for the Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Darnold, 8-9 with the Panthers, is 21-6 with the 49ers, Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks.

«Acquiring all those assets for a quarterback made sense,» a league source involved in the trade talks said. «The execution of it wasn’t executed properly with the players that were drafted with the picks.»

The Panthers packaged the 2023 No. 61 pick they acquired in the McCaffrey trade to get the No. 1 pick from Chicago to draft Young. As for the other picks from that deal, Carolina sent the 49ers’ 2023 third-rounder and their own third-rounder to the Pittsburgh Steelers to move up to No. 80 for edge rusher DJ Johnson, who was released after four games this season with only five starts and half a sack over 31 games. They used the 2024 fifth-round pick on cornerback Chau Smith-Wade, who has started only seven of 24 possible games.

The only positive for the Panthers was saving more than $11.7 million in cap space in 2023 and 2024 because they already had converted a large portion of McCaffrey’s salary into a signing bonus in previous years.

«It came down to what’s the path forward?» a league source familiar with the trade discussions said. «Christian was a freaking tremendous leader and person. … Everything about him was dynamic in the building.

«Even when he wasn’t healthy, he was a valuable asset and other people say that as well. It was all about what can be done to get a quarterback, and you have to sacrifice.»

Although the Panthers are a half-game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South and Young is 6-4 as the starter this season, questions remain about him as their franchise quarterback, and they still haven’t had a winning season or reached the playoffs since 2017.

«It didn’t do any good,» a league source familiar with the trade discussions said. «It’s still a shame [they] didn’t get at least one first-round pick for him.»

But Young’s performance Sunday gives the organization some hope that he can be the face of the franchise they’ve been searching for since trading McCaffrey.

«I was shocked,» said Tremble, one of a handful of players still on the roster from the day McCaffrey was traded. «I didn’t think that would ever happen.

«[But Young], he’s a baller. People always doubt him, and when they doubt him the most, that’s when he shows up. That’s the kind of player he is.»