ESPN Analytics’ live NFL playoff chances — which combine current in-game win probabilities with our Football Power Index (FPI) season projections — provide each team’s postseason likelihood at any given moment throughout the entire Week 18 slate. The projected final standings will update regularly Saturday and Sunday, and we’re also tracking a few tight postseason races and the projected 2026 draft order for non-playoff teams. See how things stack up in both conferences throughout every game for the rest of the regular season.
NFC playoff picture
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AFC playoff picture
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With less than two weeks left in the season, there are still two playoff spots (one in the AFC, one in the NFC) and four division titles there for the taking. The Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Bills, Chargers, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Bears, 49ers, Packers and Texans have secured playoff berths. The No. 1 seed hasn’t been clinched in either conference.
We’re tracking the closest, most interesting races live. We have you covered through all the swings, big plays and surprises.
Who will win the NFC South?
The final NFC playoff spot will go to the NFC South winner, whether it be the Panthers or Buccaneers. But Carolina and Tampa Bay both lost in Week 17, so this will come down to Week 18 — when the Panthers and Buccaneers play each other in Tampa. Winner takes the division; loser misses the playoffs.
Who will land the No. 1 seed in the NFC?
To be clear, the NFC 1-seed couldn’t be won in Week 17. But the five teams that entered in the mix — the Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, Bears and Eagles — were all jockeying for position. Seattle made the first move during the early window on Sunday, beating the Panthers.
On Sunday night, the 49ers defeated the Bears to make things interesting and narrow it to a two-team race. The Week 18 matchup between the Seahawks and 49ers will be for the NFC West title, the coveted first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, working the trade market and navigating the free agent pool. But the 2026 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 23 in Pittsburgh). Four first-round picks have been traded, which means 28 teams will have the chance to land at least one top prospect on Day 1. (The Falcons’ pick belongs to the Rams, the Jaguars’ pick belongs to the Browns, the Colts’ pick belongs to the Jets and the Packers’ pick belongs to the Cowboys.)
Who is set up to land Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State’s Arvell Reese or Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love? Here is how the draft order projects at this moment for the league’s bottom 18 teams, along with their chances to pick at No. 1 or in the top five.
Projected 2026 NFL draft order
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Methodology
Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics’ live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities weigh multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI’s projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, schedule and tiebreaker rules. The result is a live representation of a team’s various playoff, division and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2026 draft.
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Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Nick Devlin, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Rami Moghadam, Munehito Sawada and Garrett Siegel.
Illustrations by MASA. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Matt Morris and Lauren Poe.
