The planetary defense community is preparing for a critical observation window in February 2026, when they will be able to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to determine the final destination of the asteroide «2024 YR4»close to Earth.
Although space agencies concluded that the risk of impact against Earth in 2032 es practically zerothe possibility of it colliding with the Moon remains, and could increase dramatically.
What is known about asteroid YR4?
He asteroide 2024 YR4 It is a near-Earth object. It was detected at the end of 2024, specifically on December 27. It was called a «city killer» due to its size.
Images captured by JWST on March 26, 2025 indicated that the asteroid is approximately the size of a 15-story building. The estimated size of the 2024 YR4 is between 53 and 67 meters.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 captured by NASA’s Webb telescope. Photo: European Space Agency via AP.The 2024 YR4 is moving at a speed of more than 48,280.2 kilometers per hour. The asteroid remained hidden from ground-based telescopes since the middle of last year, making its exact orbit difficult to predict.
When will asteroid 2024 YR4 collide?
The date of possible impact of the asteroid against the Moon is he December 22, 2032. Currently, the probability of it hitting the Moon is 4.3 percent (one in 23), according to experts at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
This probability could change significantly after observations by JWST in February 2026. According to New Scientistthe doctor Andrew Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University and his colleagues calculated that there is a 80 percent chance These new observations are expected to reduce the risk of a lunar collision to less than one percent.
However, there is a 5 percent chance that the risk of lunar impact increase to more than 30 percent. The JWST will have two brief observation windows for 2024 YR4, specifically on February 18 and 26.
What would happen if asteroid 2024 YR4 collided with the Moon?
If 2024 YR4 collides with the Moon at more than 46,800 kilometers per hourthe impact could create a crater 0.96 kilometers wide. In turn, it could release an explosion 500 times larger than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, which would eject 10,000 tons of rock into space.
If 2024 YR4 collides with the Moon at more than 46,800 kilometers per hour, the impact could create a crater 0.96 km wide. Illustrative photo: Shutterstock.If the impact occurs in the right place, the earth’s gravity could channel between 10 and 30 percent of this ejected material directly toward our planet.
In dialogue with Daily Mail, Richard Moisslthe head of planetary defense at the European Space Agency (ESA), noted that a lunar collision does not pose a risk to people on Earth, but «it could represent a potential threat for space infrastructure», affecting satellites in low Earth orbit that are crucial for communication and navigation.
What is the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact Earth in 2032?
The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact Earth in 2032 is currently insignificant. When he was discovered, it caused alarm because he was quickly assigned the highest probability of hitting Earth of all known asteroids.
At its most dangerous, there was a «terrifying» one in 32 chance of collision with our planet. However, after additional observations, the probability of a ground impact was quickly reduced to «almost zero» or «effectively zero.»
The NASA concluded that the object «does not pose a significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond.»
