The government shutdown halted the release of key economic data, choking off the flow of information as some experts warn the economy may be slipping toward a recession, some economists told ABC News.
A federal agency postponed the release of a monthly jobs report on Friday, leaving observers in the dark about the status of a sharp hiring slowdown. If the government shutdown stretches into next week, fresh inflation figures will go unreported, masking price levels in the midst of rising costs.
Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a memo to clients on Monday, lamented the «data vacuum.»
The absence of government data heightens uncertainty at a fraught moment for the U.S. economy, potentially hamstringing responses from consumers, businesses and policymakers, some economists told ABC News. The extent of possible shutdown-induced economic damage could also go undetected, they added.
«It adds to risk and uncertainty at a most inopportune time,» Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told ABC News. «Now we’re all essentially looking through a fog.»
The government shutdown entered its sixth day on Monday. The Senate has rejected dueling funding proposals from Democrats and Republicans in four separate votes, most recently on Friday.
The U.S. Department of Labor last week said some data would not be released during the shutdown, including closely watched monthly jobs and inflation reports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau — two important sources of additional data — also said they will pause scheduled releases for the duration of a shutdown.
The loss of data has arrived at an uneasy period for the economy. In recent months, the economy has suffered a sharp hiring slowdown alongside a rise in inflation, setting the conditions for what economists call «stagflation.»
The downshift in hiring has proven especially worrisome, stoking concern among some economists about a possible recession.
A jobs report last month showed a sharp decrease in hiring in August, extending a lackluster period for the labor market. Meanwhile, a revision of previous hiring estimates days later revealed the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in 2024 and early 2025 than previously estimated, deepening concern.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson holds a press conference about the government shutdown at the US Capitol in Washington, October 6, 2025.
Shawn Thew/EPA/Shutterstock
«The job market is the primary area of concern for the U.S. economy,» Hamrick said, adding that the hiring cooldown suggests a 40% risk of a recession over the next 12 months. «That’s an elevated recession risk.»
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Without up-to-date government data, businesses may be hesitant to take actions such as major expansions or hiring sprees, while consumers could seek to avoid big-ticket purchases, some experts said.
«In general, the absence of economic data makes the economic trajectory more uncertain as it forces investors and business executives to be more cautious,» Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting firm EY, told ABC News.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its next interest rate decision on Oct. 29, following a meeting between members of the FOMC. If the government shutdown remains in place ahead of that meeting, it could leave Fed officials ill-equipped to set the best policy, Hamrick said.
«This is an exceptionally difficult period to read where inflation is going and where growth is going,» Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University, told ABC News.
To be sure, an interruption of data releases could leave investors unaware of possible improvement in the economy. Some experts noted the continued availability of private sector data sources, though observers typically view such data as inferior to government statistics.
A government shutdown typically risks only modest damage to the U.S. economy, stemming mainly from furloughed public workers, who temporarily lose out on pay and put a dent in U.S. consumer spending.
Each week of a potential government shutdown would reduce annualized real gross domestic product growth in the quarter by about 0.1%, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told ABC News in a statement.
For reference, the economy grew by an average annualized rate of 1.6% over the first half of 2025, meaning it would take several weeks of a government shutdown for notable damage to be incurred.
An absence of economic data could make it more difficult for observers to identify the economic impact of the shutdown, some experts said.
«Typically, shutdowns are not major events, but nothing is typical about the current environment,» Rogoff said.
