A jobs report on Friday will provide a key gauge of U.S. economic health as the nation weathers a global oil shock set off by the war with Iran.
The government data — which details hiring in March — is set to arrive as the war drives up gasoline prices and borrowing costs, threatening a drag on the economy.
Economists expect employers to have added 59,000 jobs in March, which would mark tepid but improved performance after 92,000 jobs were lost in the previous month.
The U.S. added an average of about 15,000 jobs per month in 2025, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed. That performance amounted to a sharp slowdown from 186,000 jobs added each month in 2024.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which began on Feb. 28, triggered one of the worst global oil shocks in decades, prompting gloomy forecasts on Wall Street of a potential U.S. recession over the coming months.
In theory, a prolonged oil shortage could drive up prices for a vast array of goods, sapping energy from consumer spending, which powers most of the nation’s economic growth.
Iran has mounted an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuza critical maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global oil supply.
Construction continues on a new enclosed stadium for the Tennessee Titans NFL football team, on March 24, 2026, in Nashville, Tenn.
George Walker IV/AP
The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum, meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide supply and demand.
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The disruption in oil shipping has pushed U.S. crude prices above $110 a barrel, which marks a staggering rise of more than 50% since the war began on Feb. 28.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. ticked up to $4.08 on average per gallon as of Wednesday, marking a leap of $1.09 over the past month, AAA data showed.
A potential jump in costs for additional goods delivered through the Strait of Hormuz — such as fertilizer and diesel fuel — could also raise prices beyond gasoline, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in an effort to quell possible inflation.
The benchmark interest rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
If the Fed moved to raise interest rates, it would hike borrowing costs for many consumer and business loans, risking a slowdown in hiring.
Speaking at Harvard University on Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could take a patient approach as it monitors potential price effects from the Middle East conflict.
«We feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out,» Powell said.
