Let’s overreact to Week 12: Is the J.J. McCarthy era already coming to an end?

One of these weeks it must get better. The Minnesota Vikings are a good organization, Kevin O’Connell is an excellent coach, they made the decision to go all-in on quarterback J.J. McCarthy and … well … it just has to get better one of these weeks, right?

Not this week.

McCarthy was horrendous again Sunday in a 23-6 loss to the Packers. He completed 12 of 19 passes for 87 yards and two interceptions. Of those 87 yards, 48 went to Justin Jefferson, perhaps the league’s best wide receiver and a man who has averaged 48.3 receiving yards per game in the four games since McCarthy returned from injury and reclaimed the starting quarterback job.

Yes, the Vikings have offensive line issues. Yes, McCarthy is a young player who has played only six NFL games and might have needed more seasoning than the Vikings originally thought. Yes, at some point, it makes sense to believe that it will get better. But right now, what’s inarguable is that McCarthy is putting up Justin Fields-like stat lines in an offense that has brought out the best in everyone from Sam Darnold to Kirk Cousins to Carson Wentz to Joshua Dobbs. And the Vikings are 4-7, one season removed from finishing 14-3 with Darnold.

We’re trying not to overreact, but as we assess Week 12 and try to figure out which overreactions might hold up and which ones are mirages, we have to dive in on Minnesota’s QB situation.

Jump to:
Vikings will have a new starting QB in 2026?
Texans to surge and win the AFC South?
Williams makes Bears tough playoff out?
Burrow return or not, the Bengals are done?
Sanders should start the rest of the season?
Fantasy-related overreactions

The Vikings will have a new starting quarterback in 2026

It’s hard to imagine McCarthy not getting a chance to finish out this season as the Vikings’ starter. The damage to their playoff hopes is done, and their only other QB option right now is undrafted rookie Max Brosmer, who could be even more raw than McCarthy is. McCarthy clearly needs experience, and he’s not going to get it on the bench. He’s probably their guy for the remainder of the 2025 season unless he gets hurt again. But 2026 could be a different story.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

If nothing else, the Vikings will want to bring in a veteran quarterback to add to their young QB room. Think about what the Colts did this offseason, signing Daniel Jones (who, ironically, finished last season with the Vikings) to compete with Anthony Richardson Sr. for the starting job. Jones beat out Richardson, and the Colts are a first-place team.

Bringing in a veteran doesn’t guarantee a similar result, and it’s possible that McCarthy could make enough advancements this offseason that he would win a competition against an outside veteran. But unless the final six games of this season look a heck of a lot different from the first six games McCarthy has started, Minnesota is going to have to look at every potential option going into 2026. The Vikings can’t throw another season away while waiting for things to click for their 2024 first-round pick.

The Texans will overtake the Colts and win the AFC South

Houston began Week 12 in impressive fashion by beating the Bills on Thursday night. The Texans improved to 3-0 with backup quarterback Davis Mills starting while C.J. Stroud has been in concussion protocol, and their swarming defense sacked Josh Allen eight times.

Houston has recovered from an 0-3 start to poke its head above .500 for the first time this season at 6-5. Meanwhile, the first-place Colts had a 20-9 fourth-quarter lead on the Chiefs on Sunday only for their offense to completely shut down and give away the game in overtime. Indianapolis fell to 8-3 with the bewildering loss.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The key to the math here is that the Texans and Colts haven’t played yet. They will do so next Sunday and again in Week 18. That means that if the Texans, who seem likely to get Stroud back for the Week 13 matchup in Indianapolis, win the rest of their games, they will finish ahead of the Colts in the AFC South standings, if only by tiebreaker. The Texans still have the Jaguars — who split the head-to-head season series with Houston — to contend with, too, but we’re working in a scenario in which Houston wins the rest of its games.

It’s reasonable to expect Jacksonville to drop one more along the way. Houston has a championship-caliber defense and an offense that has been inconsistent at best. If the Texans can get their offense together once Stroud comes back, the defense is good enough to deliver the way it did Thursday night. Houston has a long way to go, and a loss Sunday in Indy would make this very difficult. But it is not impossible.

Caleb Williams and the Bears are going to be a tough postseason out

Williams was 19-for-35 for 239 yards and three touchdown passes in Chicago’s 31-28 victory over the Aaron Rodgers–less Steelers on Sunday at Soldier Field. The Bears have won four games in a row and eight of their past nine, and they’re 8-3 and alone in first place in the NFC North. Chicago has a clear identity on offense, with a physical run game setting up Williams and his talented group of receivers for standout second-half performances.

The defense, which has not been great and was playing without at least five starters because of injuries, made the plays it needed to stop backup quarterback Mason Rudolph and Pittsburgh’s offense. Next up for the Bears is a significant road test against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Friday.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

The Bears are a great story and a good team that’s well ahead of schedule. Ben Johnson will be smack in the middle of the Coach of the Year race, and deservedly so. But there are a couple of things to note here.

First, the Bears still must get into the playoffs before they can be a threat to do anything there. Yes, they’re in first place, but the Packers are only a half-game behind and the Lions are lurking one game back. Chicago lost to the Lions in Week 2 and plays them again in Week 18, and the Bears have both of their head-to-head matchups against Green Bay still to come. So that’s two games against the Packers and one each against the Eagles and Lions among their final six games. That’s not easy.

Additionally, this is a very young team, and Williams remains a very young quarterback who’s immensely talented but still not immune to the type of horrendous strip sack he took in the end zone Sunday that handed the Steelers their second touchdown of the game. I think there are more ups and downs coming for the Bears, even if they make the playoffs. But if they do, they’ll be playing teams that have a lot more experience with January football than they do.

The Bengals’ season is over with or without Joe Burrow

Burrow gave us a thrill this week. He returned to full practice status much earlier than expected, offering some hope he could return from his toe injury and play Sunday against the Patriots. He did not, but it sounds as if he could return Thursday night against the Ravens.

With that as the backdrop, the Bengals played tough Sunday, but their last-minute drive stalled out and they lost to New England 26-20. It was Cincinnati’s fourth loss in a row. The Bengals are now 3-8 and must win the rest of their games to just finish above .500 for the season. Burrow should give them a boost upon returning, but a winning record is a tall task.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Losing by less than a touchdown to the 10-2 Patriots is nothing to be ashamed of, but the Bengals’ season probably reached the point of no return when they blew a two-touchdown fourth-quarter lead to the previously winless Jets in Week 8 and then gave up a winning TD in the final minute against the Bears a week later.

Win those two, and even with losses the past two weeks to the Steelers and Pats, the Bengals would be 5-6 and one game out of first in the AFC North. As it stands, they need to win out, including two games against the surging Ravens, and hope Pittsburgh continues its slide. Plus, the offense hasn’t been the issue with Joe Flacco at quarterback. It’s the Bengals’ atrocious defense that let them down in those two must-win games in Weeks 8 and 9. Burrow isn’t going to fix that.

The Browns should let Shedeur Sanders start the rest of their games this season

Cleveland’s wildly popular fifth-round pick made his highly anticipated first NFL start Sunday. He wasn’t spectacular by any stretch, but he certainly wasn’t a disaster. He was 11-for-20 for 209 yards with a touchdown pass and an interception in a 24-10 victory over a horrendous-looking Raiders team. That’s more than fine for a first NFL start.

Sanders had a beautiful deep pass to Isaiah Bond that set up Quinshon Judkins‘ second touchdown of the game, which put Cleveland up 14-0 early. Sanders’ 66-yard touchdown pass was a screen to running back Dylan Sampson, who did most of the work. But Sanders looked poised and made good decisions when he had to. If there was a concern going in, it was whether Sanders might be susceptible to sacks from Maxx Crosby and the Raiders’ aggressive defensive front. He was sacked only once.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Why not? The best-case scenario with Dillon Gabriel is likely him becoming a good backup, and there’s time to figure that out. But Sanders is who the fans want to see, and he didn’t appear to be overwhelmed by the moment. The Browns have two first-round picks in the 2026 draft and need to figure out what they have at quarterback before deciding whether to pursue another long-term solution. Plus, they won Sunday, which is something they’ve done only three times this season.

The Browns also scored 24 points, which is something they’ve done only four times since the start of the 2024 season. The Raiders are a pushover team, and it’s possible this is the best Sanders will look the rest of the way. But what do the Browns have to lose by sending him back out there?

Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions

• Emanuel Wilson is a must-roster running back. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Sure, Josh Jacobs could be back as soon as Thursday and send Wilson back to the Packers’ bench, not to mention fantasy benches. But we just saw what it looks like when Wilson takes over as the starter, and he was an RB1 on Sunday. If Jacobs is on your team, Wilson needs to be on there, too. And even if you don’t have Jacobs, it’s worth having Wilson as a lottery ticket or trade bait.

• Kenneth Gainwell is passing Jaylen Warren on the Steelers’ RB depth chart. OVERREACTION. Gainwell had 92 rushing yards to Warren’s 68 on Sunday, and he added 30 receiving yards on six catches. But Warren still had nearly twice as many carries (18 to 10) and the Steelers still view him as their starter and their main back. They do love Gainwell and enjoy using their running backs and tight ends, so hold on to Gainwell if you have him. But don’t expect him to suddenly become Pittsburgh’s featured back.

• Lamar Jackson isn’t a QB1 in fantasy right now. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Jackson must be started in case he goes nuclear, but he’s not even simmering now. He had 153 passing yards, 11 rushing yards and no touchdowns Sunday against the Jets. Jackson has fallen short of 20 rushing yards in half of his games and hasn’t rushed for more than 48 since Week 1. The Ravens are winning and have a soft schedule the rest of the way, so they could just lean on running back Derrick Henry and keep using Jackson as a point guard.

• Wan’Dale Robinson is a must-start WR the rest of the season. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Malik Nabers is out for the season, and whether it has been Jaxson Dart, Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston, Giants QBs have enjoyed throwing the ball to Robinson, who caught nine passes for 156 yards and a touchdown Sunday. The Giants play wild games and could be in a lot of come-from-behind situations the rest of the way. Robinson should continue to produce — especially once Dart is back.

• Kareem Hunt is the Chiefs’ RB to have even when Isiah Pacheco returns. OVERREACTION. I don’t know if you should want to start any of them. As someone with the Chiefs told me last week in Denver, «If you’re starting a Chiefs running back, you’d better be hoping for a touchdown.»