A recent investigation, carried out by Adrian Gutiérrez Cabello of the Regional Economy Center of UNSAM, has revealed the strong spill effect that would have a significant increase in soybean production on the Argentine economy, a debate that is revived in the context of the discussion on withholdings.
The Magic Number: 61.7 Million Tons
The study raises a key condition for the elimination or gradual reduction of withholdings on soybeans (currently 26%) to have a zero tax cost: soybean production must grow by 28%reaching the 61.7 million tons harvested. This figure exceeds the historical record of the 2014-2015 campaign.
Direct and Indirect Economic Impact
Achieving this volume, which represents some 13.5 million extra tonswould generate a significant economic boost:
- GDP increase: An impact close to 0.82% of GDP of the country, adding added value in the industry that could reach 1%.
- Exports: Exports of byproducts would be around US$6.3 billion.
- Industrial Capacity: The oilseed industry would reach a utilization of the technical capacity of the 77,4%also eliminating the import of soybeans (mainly from Paraguay).
The Spill in Logistics and Energy Figures
The true «spillover effect» would be felt in key sectors such as logistics and energy, according to the specialist:
| Impacted Sector | Additional Figure | Description |
| Transport | 482,000 trucks | Additional flow of units towards port areas. |
| Combustible | 511 million liters | Total extra diesel demand (for planting, harvesting and transportation). |
Gutiérrez Cabello emphasizes that this dynamic «Not only is agricultural activity energized, but it is also directly and indirectly transferred to the rest of the sectors that produce goods and services».
Withholdings: Fiscal Necessity or Impact on Food?
The investigation also addresses the issue of withholdings, pointing out that the high rate on soybeans (26%) is due more to a «fiscal necessity» that with the objective of mitigating the impact of the price of this raw material on the final price of food, since the incidence of agricultural raw materials on the final cost is «very low.»
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