The off-year race is often viewed as a bellwether for the midterms.
November 4, 2025, 5:06 AM
As the Virginia governor’s race comes to a close, Democratic nominee and former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger has maintained her lead in the polls over Republican nominee and current Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
The results of the Virginia gubernatorial election — which comes during an election off-year — is often viewed as a political bellwether for competitive races in the midterms the following year.
The governor’s race is of particular interest this year because Virginia is home to more than 300,000 federal workers, many of whom were likely affected by efforts made by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency to slash the federal workforce and the current government shutdown that has no end in sight.
This year’s results could serve as a referendum on Trump’s second term in a state that he lost three times by considerable margins.
Spanberger has centered her campaign around improving the economy and lowering the cost of living for Virginians throughout the race. She has held a steady lead over Earle-Sears in most polls since last year.
«It is only in Virginia and New Jersey that we have statewide elections where we can prove to the rest of the country — when given, when we have an opportunity to make a change at home in our state, we will take it,» Spanberger told the crowd at a recent campaign rally. «We know the stakes of this election and we know what we are for. We are for a governor focused relentlessly on lowering costs on housing, health care, and energy.»
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Earle-Sears has missed no opportunity to try to link Spanberger to Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones’ recent texting scandal, in which he was revealed to have called for violence against a Republican lawmaker. At this month’s gubernatorial debate, Earle-Sears went after Spanberger for refusing to call on Jones to drop out of the race in a moment the Earle-Sears campaign turned into an ad.
«Would it take him pulling the trigger? Is that what would do it?» Earle-Sears questioned. «What if he said it about your three children? Is that when you would say it’s time to get out of the race, Abigail?»
And in a strategy reminiscent of the one Donald Trump used in 2024 against Kamala Harris, Earle-Sears has launched a slate of ads attacking Spanberger for her stance on the rights of transgender students in Virginia schools. But polls do not suggest that Earle-Sears’ attacks are resonating with Virginians, who cite threats to democracy, inflation, and health care as their top concerns in this election, according to a recent poll from Christopher Newport University.
According to the same poll, Spanberger led Earle-Sears by seven points in the closing days of the race.
