By Vive Caba Editorial Staff
The latest report of Exchange Balance of 2025 published by the Central Bank (BCRA) has set off alarms among economists and residents of the City. Although the agro-export sector poured foreign currency into the system, the final numbers show an uncomfortable reality: the country is taking on new debt mainly to pay the interest on the old debt and cover the outflow of dollars through other means.
Trade surplus vs. Constant dripping
During the last year, the exchange of goods left a positive balance, but that «air» quickly disappeared. According to official data, the trade surplus was devoured by three fronts that do not give up:
- Tourism and card consumption: Foreign travel and purchases in foreign currency continue to be a major drain.
- Formation of External Assets: What we commonly know as «flight», which reflects the distrust of savers and investors.
- Interest payment: The burden of inherited and recently contracted debt.
A sustainable model?
The distinctive note of this period is that the inflow of financial capital—the influx of dollars through loans or speculative investments—is what is allowing the BCRA to not run out of reserves. However, analysts warn that this scheme is, by definition, transitory.
«More debt is being financed with debt,» say specialists, warning that while national industry and domestic consumption show signs of fatigue, the dollars that come in are not used for production, but rather for keeping the financial wheel turning.
The impact on the street
For the ordinary citizen in CABA, this macroeconomic fragility translates into constant uncertainty about the exchange rate and, consequently, about inflation. While the Government tries to show stability, the Exchange Balance reveals that the foundations of this exchange peace depend on continuing to stretch the terms of a debt that does not stop growing.
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