The administration resorts to extraordinary financial maneuvers, such as the support of the US and the sale of bonds tied to the dollar, seeking to avoid a devaluation that the fiscal surplus and economic credibility. However, these measures only postpone the debate on a post-electoral sustainable exchange regime.
The search for tactical stability
The proximity of the elections of October 26, which will define the margin of governance for the reform plan of President Javier Milei, has raised the containment of the dollar maximum priority. The Government seeks to defend the ceiling of the flotation bands ($ 1,482, according to the article) to sustain the credibility of its economic policy.
To achieve this, it has resorted to a combination of short -term financial tools:
- External support: The commitment of financial assistance to USA (Through the Secretary of the Treasury Scott Besent) it acts as an injection of trust and «ammunition» for the Central Bank.
- Agro dollars: The temporary elimination of retentions to agricultural exports facilitated a early settlement of USD 7,000 million, much of which were absorbed by the national treasure to intervene in the market.
- Sale of instruments: The Central Bank (BCRA) uses the sale of contracts in the future dollar market y Bonds dollar linked to absorb weights and break down the currency demand. This strategy seeks to offer a coverage route to those who bet on devaluation without directly pressing on the spot dollar.
Neutrality: hidden costs and inevitable postponement
A neutral analysis must weigh the benefits of pre -election stability with operational costs of the measures. The sale of bonds tied to the dollar implies a commitment to future payment in pesos adjusted by devaluation, which mortgage Public accounts in the medium term if the exchange rate triggers after October.
In addition, the BCRA has had to sell net reserves (USD 1,110 million between September 17 and 19) To defend the price, a sacrifice that goes against the objective of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of accumulating currencies. The neutrality It forces to recognize that these strategies are tactical palliatives, not structural solutions. There is a consensus in the market that any definition of a freer exchange regime or the elimination of the stocks will remain postponed for after the elections, moving the tension to the last quarter of the year.
Critical perspective: credibility vs. Pragmatism
Central criticism is directed to improvised pragmatism and the risk of a «late effect» (similar to those of 2018-2019). The Government, by defending the exchange band with direct interventions and sales of reserves, runs the risk of exhausting its ammunition and forcing a more steep correction once the political anchor of the elections disappears.
The IMF has insisted on the need for «Build broad political support» For reforms, linking financial stability with governance. If the electoral result does not consolidate legislative support to the ruling, the markets could interpret the result as a weakening of the economic agenda, increasing the pressure on the dollar.
In short, current economic policy prioritizes Nominal stability until the vote, using external help and treasury maneuvers such as Temporary docks. However, this strategy is critically seen as a «forward kick» that postpone, but does not resolve, the need for a coherent exchange policy and a genuine accumulation of reserves.
