Although in mathematics singularity refers to a point where matter becomes so dense that the laws of physics begin to fail, the term took on a different meaning after being adopted by science fiction writer Vernor wing and the futurist Ray Kurzweil.
Today, the singularity generally refers to the point at which technological advances begin to accelerate far beyond humanity’s ability to control them. In this sense, it is interpreted as the moment when an artificial intelligence (AI) becomes smarter than all of humanity combined.
Cem Dilmeganiprincipal analyst of AIMultipledescribed the singularity as a hypothetical event which would result in a rapid increase in machine intelligence. «For the singularity, we need a system that combines human-level thinking with superhuman speed and almost perfect, quickly accessible memory,» he explained in dialogue with Daily Mail.
This event should also result in machine consciousnessalthough Dilmegani points out that one cannot be precise about this, since consciousness is not well defined.
When will AI surpass human intelligence?
In the mid-2010s, scientists generally thought that AI could not surpass human intelligence before 2060at the earliest. However, the capacity of generative AI (GenAI) exceeded the expectations of most experts, advancing projections of the singularity.
In his essay «Machines of loving grace«, the CEO of Anthropic Dario Amodeiproposed that the singularity could arrive as soon as in 2026. He argued that this AI would be «smarter than a Nobel Prize winner in most relevant fields» and «will absorb information and generate actions at approximately 10 to 100 times human speed.»
Sam Altman stated in a 2024 essay that «we may have superintelligence in a few thousand days.» Photo Carlos Barria/ReutersThe CEO of Tesla and creator of Grokat the X, Elon Muskmaintained in an interview on his social network in 2024 that, if general AI is defined as «smarter than humans», then it will «probably» surpass it «within two years», that is, also in 2026.
Sam AltmanCEO of OpenAI and creator of ChatGPT, stated in a 2024 essay that «we may have superintelligence in a few thousand days»which would place the arrival of the singularity at any time from 2027 onwards.
These predictions, although extreme, are based on the exponential growth in the capacity of leading AI modelswhich double approximately every seven months. «GenAI’s capabilities exceeded most experts’ expectations and pushed singularity expectations earlier,» Dilmegani emphasized.
The consensus of the experts
To get a clearer image, AIMultiple combined surveys covering 8,590 AI experts. Yes ok predictions accelerated a lot Since the release of ChatGPT, most experts believe that the singularity is probably about 20 years away.
For Elon Musk, the singularity could happen in 2026. Photo: La Vanguardia/Reuters. For the singularity to occur, experts point out that AI must first reach a state known as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The IAG is described as a computer system that is as good as a human at a wide range of different tasks. Currently, AIs are better than humans at specific tasks (Narrow Artificial Intelligence).
The consensus is that IAG will be achieved around 2040. Once IAG is achieved, experts estimate that the singularity, in which AI surpasses humanity’s collective intelligence, will follow very quickly, between two and 30 years later.
